The planet is in the grip of a mammoth tug of war between risk appetite and risk aversion; the cyclical and secular; the threat of inflation and deflation; fiscal stimulus and restraint; the hope of a normal, mid-cycle deceleration and the fear of unresolved and potentially irreparable event risks, including a double dip in the U.S., UK, eurozone (EZ) and globally given China’s deceleration and comparisons between U.S. and EZ stress tests. Such trade-offs mean that we are alternating between bear-market relief rallies and sudden, no-confidence shocks and doubts about viability.
Apart from this there is nothing much happening.
Back in 2009...
Surmising the Americans cannot have a recovery and a truly strong dollar at the same time. As recovery gathers pace the only direction for interest rates is up (inflationary). Major currencies have been and still are competing for weakness. Quantitative easing devalues a currency, but this must still continue until jobs become self-generating. The ongoing carry trade will not suddenly decide to control itself, the supporting short-term interest rate differentials need to reduce, but how? World population is increasing by over 217000 per day (GeoHive). It is apparent that the smart money is looking for safety (+ growth) in gold and for investment in essential commodities. Gold is still the safest alternative for preservation of buying power going forward. Even when (if) the recovery commences there will then be inflation. The balance of sentiment of the carry trade operatives is controlling day-to-day market direction. Most of the mountain of money that shifted to bonds is still waiting to return to equities and is increasingly frustrated with negative real growth (less risk averse).
October 2010...
Slowly, slowly the impending future unfolds before us and the unwanted days of further reckoning draw ever closer.
A most unprecedented experiment is being played out, from which some may prosper, but many many more may become truly desperate and multiply the numbers of those that are indigent. The stakes are perilously high.
There is no choice here, QE is not optional - it is the only hope left for manageable peace during the passage.
This bid for reparation for the endless wrongful acts of the past generations of American leadership has absolutely no guarantee and affords only hope for a successful outcome against heavy odds.
This hope is almost analogous to a religious belief of everlasting life except that the beneficiaries are not intended to be restricted to the unquestioning and fearful or otherwise indoctrinated faithful.
Should we pray?
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