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Friday, January 13, 2012

Times

Come gather 'round people Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters Around you have grown
And accept it that soon You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin' !

Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'.
For the loser now Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin' !

Come senators, congressmen Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin' !

Come mothers and fathers Throughout the land
And don't criticize What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters Are beyond your command
Your old road is Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin' !

The line it is drawn The curse it is cast
The slow one now Will later be fast
As the present now Will later be past
The order is Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin' !

Back in 2009...

Surmising the Americans cannot have a recovery and a truly strong dollar at the same time. As recovery gathers pace the only direction for interest rates is up (inflationary). Major currencies have been and still are competing for weakness. Quantitative easing devalues a currency, but this must still continue until jobs become self-generating. The ongoing carry trade will not suddenly decide to control itself, the supporting short-term interest rate differentials need to reduce, but how? World population is increasing by over 217000 per day (GeoHive). It is apparent that the smart money is looking for safety (+ growth) in gold and for investment in essential commodities. Gold is still the safest alternative for preservation of buying power going forward. Even when (if) the recovery commences there will then be inflation. The balance of sentiment of the carry trade operatives is controlling day-to-day market direction. Most of the mountain of money that shifted to bonds is still waiting to return to equities and is increasingly frustrated with negative real growth (less risk averse).

October 2010...

Slowly, slowly the impending future unfolds before us and the unwanted days of further reckoning draw ever closer.
A most unprecedented experiment is being played out, from which some may prosper, but many many more may become truly desperate and multiply the numbers of those that are indigent. The stakes are perilously high.
There is no choice here, QE is not optional - it is the only hope left for manageable peace during the passage.
This bid for reparation for the endless wrongful acts of the past generations of American leadership has absolutely no guarantee and affords only hope for a successful outcome against heavy odds.
This hope is almost analogous to a religious belief of everlasting life except that the beneficiaries are not intended to be restricted to the unquestioning and fearful or otherwise indoctrinated faithful.
Should we pray?